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John Heyda / Middletown, Ohio USA
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West Ham Post-Mortems


Sunday, February 29, 2004

With yesterday's loss City missed a chance to pull level on points with West Ham. Instead, the Bluebirds wake up this morning still in 11th place and six points behind the Hammers. If ever there were a six-pointer, this was it. So, as City have lost the big game, what does yesterday's defeat say about where things stand for the Bluebirds in the First Division? What to make of City's midtable position was a topic for discussion on the mailing list today. Here's what some of the entries looked like:

Aidan got the discussion started with the predictable question, "What went wrong?" His answer:

Under pressure our midfield fell to pieces they couldn't seem to put three passes together without giving the ball away, even the normally reliable Kavanaugh was guilty. Little service to Earnie and Lee who didn't seem to gel together.Another poor display by Earnie it has to be said, where has his Wales form gone to. He was that bad I was almost calling for Campbell to come on. Yes that it was that bad. When we did get the ball out wide we seem to just pass it straight back to the congested middle of the park.

Aidan added: "It has to be said West Ham looked a division above us and I suspect they will be next season. They will push hard for an auto promotion place. It would not surprise me if they catch Norwich and WBA and win the title." Ant wrote that the "game simply underlined how much team strengthening is needed if we are to make a real challenge for promotion next season. Our position reflects the ability of our squad. Mid-table. Capable of occasional brillance, but not quite good enough for a promotion challenge." For Ant, "West Ham were far and away the better side, and should have scored more. I'm not Margetson's biggest fan, believing Alexander to be the better of the two, but he was excellent yesterday. Gabbidon should have walked for his first half challenge on Zamora."

Responding to Ant, Matt Gabb said, "Spot on, I think the team as it stands has reached its potential. Midtable means you can occasionally mix it with the big boys, but will also at times look nowhere near." Matt added, "I was pleased with the effort and commitment on Saturday. Every one of City's players gave their all, but it wasn't good enough. West Ham were better in every department, and when you look at their line up you can see why."

So, what should midtable City do? Here's Matt's view:

We could probably stay as we are for a long time yet ticking along with a similar sort of squad, but if Hammam wants promotion soon then there will need to be serious team-strengthening.

New full backs, another top quality centre back, and we need another central midfielder to replace Boland, and another to replace Robinson who will have to retire sooner or later. Langley looks good at times but lacks the consistency to do it week in week out, so we need competition out wide. And on top of all of that we need four top notch strikers as all the top sides too. So Campbell out, and at least one more striker who is as good as, if not better than Thorne/Lee.

Matt sums things up well. There's a lot to want but if City stay as they are they should still be pretty much OK for awhile.


Zamora Nets Winner as West Ham Top City 1-0


Saturday, February 28, 2004

You had to figure it'd be Bluebird arch-nemesis Bobby Zamora who'd get the winner in today's matchup with West Ham at Upton Park. Sure enough, Zamora's 73rd-minute goal lifted the Hammers to a 1-0 win in a match the Londoners dominated and could have won by three or four goals. The loss extends to 13 City's winless run against West Ham.

The 1-0 final score made the match look a lot closer than it actually was. Mike Morris says as much in his website reaction piece, "No Complaints - The Best Team Won." For Mike, "City were beaten fair and square in the game. Early on City had the upper hand but could not find the net. The stats at the end tell the story. West Ham had 22 efforts on goals to our 7." Mike adds that "City's problem was the inability to play quick one touch football. Every time we needed three touches and when you have Zamora, Harewood, Connolly, Eterington, Carrick etc giving you little or no space we just kept getting ourselves into trouble."

In his report, Nigel Harris put it bluntly:

In a one-sided contest, Martyn Margetson played the role of General Custer producing save after save in a truly outstanding display of goalkeeping brilliance. His supporting cast were the crossbar and post which saved City in each half, linesmen who rightly disallowed two goals and West Ham’s own finishing which let them down on several occasions. Otherwise, it would have been a rout.

Mario Risoli's report for the Western Mail, "Bobby Dazzler Stuns Ninian Men Again," recites the damage Zamora has done to City in recent years:

Zamora netted the only goal of a Third Division promotion shoot-out between Brighton and Cardiff at the Withdean Stadium in February 2001.

Up popped Zamora again when the two sides met in a Second Division clash at Ninian Park the following September, the 6ft 1in striker finding the net in a 1-1 draw.

Then, in the return fixture on the south coast in January 2002, he hit Brighton's winner in a 1-0 win.

Sad, innit.

David Wolfe has the Wales on Sunday report, "Zamora Bursts Cardiff's Bubble." The South Wales Echo's Terry Phillips has a report as well, "Play-offs Look Out of Reach."


When Did City Last Beat West Ham?


Friday, February 27, 2004

City meet West Ham United for the third time this season when the clubs play at Upton Park tomorrow. On September 23 the two met for the first time in over 22 years, their last previous match a 0-0 draw way back on May 6, 1981. The Hammers won the September 23 encounter 3-2 in a Carling Cup tilt at Ninian Park. On October 25 the clubs met again at Ninian Park, this time in a league contest, the game ending in a 0-0 draw. The loss and draw this season extend City's winless run against the Hammers to 12.

City haven't beaten the Hammers in over 40 years. The Bluebirds last topped West Ham way back on April 23, 1962, on the 35th anniversary of City's glorious win over Arsenal in the 1927 FA Cup final. City's 3-0 win at Ninian Park that day was a big one in their struggle against relegation, pulling the club level on points with Fulham for 20th place in the (old) Division One table (and avenged a 4-1 loss to the Hammers at Upton Park three days before). Even though the Cottagers' lost 2-1 at home to West Bromwich Albion that day, they managed to stay ahead of City on goal difference and, as it turned out, City couldn't quite overtake them. From that point on, Fulham won one of their last three to stay up, finishing 20th with 33 points; City countered with but one point in their last two games, finishing 21st with 32 points.

In the years following City's last win over the Hammers, the two clubs have now met 12 times, seven times in the league, five times in League Cup play. West Ham won on seven occasions with the other five ending in draws. Here are details of their 12 meetings since City's last win:

* City and the Hammers met in the semifinals of the 1965-66 League Cup at the end of City's best-ever League Cup run. West Ham buried the Bluebirds in the two matches, winning 5-2 at Upton Park on December 20 and 5-1 at Ninian Park on February 2. West Ham went on to lose the final to West Bromwich Albion.

* The two clubs met again in the second round of the 1971-72 League Cup. The first match, played at Upton Park, wound up 1-1 but the Hammers won the replay 2-1 at Ninian Park to advance to the third round. The Hammers got as far as the semifinals that year before losing 3-1 to Stoke in a second replay following a home-and-away 2-2 aggregate draw.

* City and West Ham met in the league for the first time in nearly 17 years when the clubs drew 1-1 at Upton Park on April 16, 1979, then 0-0 at Ninian Park May 11, on the next-to-last day of the 1978-79 season. West Ham finished fourth, City ninth in the (old) Second Division that year.

* West Ham won both (old) Second Division matches the next year, 3-0 at Upton Park on November 24, 1979, and 1-0 at Ninian Park on April 19, 1980. West Ham wound up seventh that year, City 15th.

* The next year West Ham beat City 1-0 at Upton Park on October 7, 1980 before the two clubs drew 0-0 at Ninian Park in the aforementioned May 6, 1981 match. West Ham won the (old) Division Two title that year by a whopping 13 points in the league's last two-points-for-a-win season. City finished 19th, averting relegation on goal difference alone.

In all, the two clubs have met 44 times. City have won but seven, West Ham 22. There have been 15 draws.


Earnie's Gotta Play in the Premiership


Thursday, February 26, 2004

Robert Earnshaw needs to play in the Premiership. That's the word from Robbie Savage, who says Earnie's got to do it for the sake of his Wales career. Or at least that's the story according to Paul Abbandonato of the Western Mail, who reports as much in "Earnie Must Play Premiership Football."

Savage might be thinking that Earnie should play for his club, Birmingham. But why would Earnshaw want to do that? O.K., fine they're eighth in the Premiership and City are only 11th in the First Division, but didn't Birmingham just lose to Sunderland in the FA Cup, the same Sunderland that City walloped 4-0 last Saturday? Mailing list regular Scott Thomas put it all in perspective in a post to the list: "NO REASON FOR EARNIE TO GO THERE OF COURSE, JUST AS THERE'S NO REASON TO GET SO WOUND UP ABOUT A SLOW NEWS DAY STORY."


Reserves Thump Cheltenham Town 2-0 to Stay Top


Wednesday, Febraury 25, 2004

Cardiff City Reserves continued their winning ways today, besting Cheltenham Town Reserves 2-0 at Whaddon Road. Mike Morris's report notes that "Alan Lee and Andy Campbell scored the goals that keep City top of the Pontins Reserve league." He adds that "Plymouth's 4-2 win over Yeovil yesterday keeps the Pilgrims in second place." A table accompanying this report shows City first with 28 points from 12 games, followed by Plymouth with 21 points from 11 games, Yeovil third with 17 points from 11, and Oxford fourth with 15 from 12.

In his report for CCFC Sleeping Giant, Sean Wozencroft notes that "City started with a very strong line-up which included just one player without a first team number - Byron Anthony. The starting XI was as follows: Alexander, Anthony, Prior, Collins, Croft, Bowen, Bonner, Whalley, Robinson, Lee and Campbell." Wozencroft's report includes a link to Cheltenham Town official site, which offers its own .


More on the Great John Charles


Monday, February 23, 2004

Tributes continue to pour in for the great John Charles. The Guardian ran a couple of stories today, one of them a piece by John Rawling, "Charles the Humble, A Man Who Would Be King in Any Era." Rawlings begins with the observation that "very few of our sporting heroes have prompted such warm admiration as John Charles." He quotes Jack Charlton's saying that Charles was "the best header of a football there has ever been." He cites some other great Welshmen as well, among them Mark Hughes and Ian Rush. Yesterday, the Guardian's Kevin Mitchell penned an obituary.

The Telegraph has a couple of stories of note as well. Michael Parkinson has "Majestic Charles Had Unique Talent That Scaled Rare Heights." David Miller has penned, "Charles Was Truly a Colossus." The Telegraph as an obituary too.

The Western Mail's Mario Risoli has a very thorough review of Charles's life and times, in "John Charles: Il Gigante Buono." Risoli has some good stuff on Charles's three years with City, noting that "he was an inspirational figure in their maiden Cup Winners Cup campaign in 1963-64, that saw City overcome Esbjerg and holders Sporting Lisbon before falling to Real Zaragoza." Charles's funeral will be on St. David's Day, and David Williamson has the details in "'I'm Bringing My John's Ashes Home'." The Western Mail has another Charles story, entitled "The £100m Man," that speculates on the price to acquire the Gentle Giant's services today.

Wales on Sunday has a Frank Malley tribute, "John Was Our Most Successful Soccer Export - and That Includes Beckham." For Malley, "Charles was quick, strong, with a powerful shot and an ability in the air which many experts reckon has been unrivalled before or since." Laura Kemp, also of Wales on Sunday, has a story entitled "'We Cry For a Champion and a Giant'."

Alex Lemon has a couple of pieces on Charles for the South Wales Echo, "Hughes Pays Tribute to John Charles" and "Italians Mourn Wales' Gentle Giant."


City Clobber Sunderland 4-0, Climb to 11th

Saturday, February 21, 2004

You can forget all about those depressing stats on City's never beating clubs in the top half of the table. The Bluebirds ended that losing streak today with a resounding 4-0 triumph over Sunderland at Ninian Park. With the win, City climb to 11th place and to within three points of the playoff places. Four of the five clubs ahead of City have at least a game in hand on the Bluebirds, however.

This one got off to a great start for City as Sunderland's Joachim Bjorkland was red-carded in the 17th minute and Graham Kavanagh was able to net the ensuing free kick. City doubled their lead about 10 minutes later when Richard Langley scored from a Rhys Weston cross. Shortly after the break Danny Gabbidon got a third and Alan Lee made it four with 10 minutes to go. The 4-0 win matches City's best ever performance against Sunderland. City registered one other 4-0 win, at Roker Park on February 13, 1971. The back-to-back clean sheets against Sunderland this season match another best-ever effort against today's visitors. City have kept consecutive clean sheets against Sunderland on one other occasion. Back on January 8, 1921 City won 1-0 at Roker Park in an FA Cup match, then registered a 2-0 win at Ninian Park on December 3, 1921 in a Division One tilt.

You've got to like Mike Morris's reaction piece on the big win, entitled "It's Just Like Watching Wales." Mike begins with a list of four myths demolished by the win:

Myth 1. We can't beat a team from the top 10.
Myth 2. We are in relegation danger.
Myth 3. We can't possibly reach the play offs.
Myth 4. We are a one man team.

I'm not sure that City can reach the playoffs but I can't argue with the other three. If I'd seen the rampant City Mike saw I'm not sure I'd want to argue with Myth 3 either. Mike contends, "Half time came and it was 2-0 to Cardiff. If it was 5-0 I think it would have been fair." Strong language but then that's how good City were.

In his match report, Nigel Harris observed that "it was a massacre. If City had retained their intensity, we would probably have been celebrating a 6-0 or 7-0 victory, I was feeling embarrassed for Sunderland."

Mario Risoli of the Western Mail has a report, "Rampant City Silence Those Shameful Sunderland Fans," that cites Peter Thorne on City's determination to win after Sunderland fans disrupted the moment's silence for John Charles just before kickoff. "We were going to try our best to beat Sunderland anyway," Risoli quotes Thorne as saying, "but what happened during that minute's silence really spurred us on. It made going for Sunderland so much easier."

Claire Sheehan of Wales on Sunday has penned "Len Travels Inter-City!" Sheehan observes that "Cardiff were excellent in every sense of the word - pace, passion and possession all evident as they put Sunderland to the sword." For her, the Bluebirds were "confident and calm in defence, neat and aware in the middle and pacey and powerful up top, perhaps the play-offs aren't an impossibility after all."

Terry Phillips of the South Wales Echo has a report as well, "Slick City Silence Clueless Visitors." For Phillips, "it was a day for Cardiff's unsung heroes to take centre stage," and in this regard he names, as today's heroes, Margetson, Weston, and Barker. Another South Wales Echo report, and a lengthy one at that, is entitled "Sparkling City Soar to Victory."

For reports from a Sunderland perspective, see the Sunday Sun's "Cardiff City 4, Sunderland 0" and the report at OneSunderland.com.


The Gentle Giant Passes Away


Saturday, February 21, 2004

John Charles, the "Gentle Giant" regarded by many as the greatest Welsh footballer of all time, has passed away at the age of 72. The BBC Sport report, "John Charles Dies," notes that he "was admitted to hospital in January after feeling unwell prior to an appearance on Italian television. He underwent two operations in Milan and had part of his foot amputated due to serious blood circulation problems before being flown back to England."

A native of Swansea, Charles was picked up by Leeds United at the tender age of 17 and made his league debut a few months later. At the age of 18 years and 71 days, he made his first appearance for Wales in March 1950 against Northern Ireland, becoming the youngest player to play for the Red Dragons. He went on to win 38 caps for Wales and scored a hat trick on April 20, 1955, against Northern Ireland at Windsor Park, Belfast.

Charles was a big star for Leeds, netting as many as 42 goals in 39 games during the 1953-54 season. At the end of the 1956-57 season, Leeds sold him to Juventus, who paid the princely sum of £65,000 for his services. He was nothing short of immense in the Italian league, scoring 30 goals in his first season there and leading the Turin club to the Serie A title. A BBC Sport story, "Juve Lead Charles Tributes," includes these quotes from Juventus vice-president Roberto Bettega. "He is a person who interpreted the spirit of Juventus in the best possible manner and he represented the sport in the best and purest manner. We are thinking of his wife Glenda and of the children of the 'Gigante Buono', who we will never forget." He netted over 100 goals for Juventus before returning to Leeds for the 1961-62 season. After a short spell back at Elland Road, he went back to Italy, this time for AS Roma.

Charles joined Cardiff City for the 1963-64 season and played two and half years for the Bluebirds, tallying 19 goals in 88 games. In his very first game for City he scored on a 75-yard indirect free kick that got past Norwich keeper Kevin Keelan. In 1965 he became Hereford United's player-manager, then coached for Swansea and managed Merthyr Tydfil before calling it a career.

As Rhodri Morgan reports, in a Helen Morgan ICWales story, "Gentle Giant' Passes Away," "It's only when you are in Italy - in Turin or Rome - that you realise just how high his reputation is. He is almost regarded as a saint in Italy as he resolutely refused to use his immense power and strength to overcome others." Mr. Morgan adds that, "If he knocked someone down he immediately picked them up to see if they were all right." Charles earned every bit of his nickname as the Gentle Giant as he "achieved the notable feat of never being booked or sent off throughout his career." In his story, "John Charles R.I.P.," Mike Morris notes that he "Charles starred for Wales in the World Cup in 1958. He was awarded a CBE in 2001. He should have received a knighthood and despite many campaigns it never came."

A minute's silence will be observed for John Charles at Ninian Park today, before Cardiff City meets Sunderland, and at Old Trafford, prior to the Manchester United-Leeds United contest.


Hat-tricks for Wales


Thursday, February 19, 2004

Wales v Scotland match reports have been quick to note that Robert Earnshaw's hat-trick was the first for Wales since Ian Rush netted three against the Faroe Islands back in 1992. The Guardian's Dominic Fifield reports, for instance, that "Robert Earnshaw's breathless hat-trick, Wales's first since Ian Rush plundered the Faroe Islands 12 years ago, had the hapless visitors on their knees." BBC Sport's report mentions the Rush hat-trick as well, then adds that it was "the first against Scotland since Toshack in 1979." These references to past hat-tricks for Wales sent me scurrying for my trusty Rothmans Book of Football Records, which lists the results and goal scorers for every match Wales has played since that first very match, way back on March 25, 1876, against Scotland in Glasgow. How many hat-tricks have Wales had? Who scored them? Here's what I found out:

* Paging through the results I learned that Robert Earnshaw's hat-trick is the 15th for Wales. Incredibly, he is also the 15th different hat-trick hero for Wales. So, if Earnie could pull off another hat-trick he'd be the first Wales player ever to do it twice. How likely is that though? After all, he'll reach the advanced age of 23 on April 6!

* Five of the 15 hat-tricks have been scored at Ireland's expense, the last of the five occurring in 1906. In fact, all of the first five hat-tricks were scored against Ireland. Another three have come against Northern Ireland.

* Ninian Park has seen four of the hat-tricks, Toshack's against Scotland the last, in 1979. By the way, that last hat-trick for a Wales player against Scotland was also the only one against the Scots before Earnie's last night.

Here's the list:

1882 - J. Price, four goals v Ireland at the Racehorse Ground, Wrexham, on February 25.

1885 - H. Sisson, three goals v Ireland at Ballynafeigh Park, Belfast, on April 11.

1888 - J. Doughty, four goals v Ireland at the Racehorse Ground, on March 3.

1889 - R. H. Jarrett, three goals v Ireland at Ballynafeigh Park, on April 27.

1906 - A. W. Green, three goals v Ireland at the Racehorse Ground, on April 2.

1943 - G. Lowrie, three goals v England at Wembley Stadium, London, on February 27.

1949 - Trevor Ford, three goals v Belgium at Ninian Park, Cardiff, on November 23.

1955 - John Charles, three goals v Northern Ireland at Windsor Park, Belfast, on April 20.

1957 - D. Palmer, three goals v East Germany at Ninian Park, on September 25.

1962 - Mel Charles, four goals v Northern Ireland at Ninian Park, on April 11.

1963 - Cliff Jones, three goals v Northern Ireland at Windsor Park, on April 3.

1978 - I. Edwards, four goals v Malta at the Racehorse Ground, on October 25.

1979 - John Toshack, three goals v Scotland at Ninian Park, on May 19.

1992 - Ian Rush, three goals v the Faroe Islands at Arms Park, Cardiff, on September 9.

2004 - Robert Earnshaw, three goals v Scotland at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, on February 18.


Earnie Nets Hat-trick as Wales Wallop Scotland 4-0


Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Cardiff City's very own Robert Earnshaw was the hero as Wales whipped Scotland 4-0 before 47,124 at the Millennium Stadium. The City striker put Wales in front in the first minute with a breakaway goal, then converted a pinpoint Ryan Giggs cross to double the Red Dragons' lead at the half-hour mark. He made it a hat-trick within ten minutes of the restart. The hat-trick is the first for a Wales player in a dozen years, Ian Rush getting the last one against the Faroe Islands back in 1992. Gareth Taylor added a fourth goal, his first for Wales. The 4-0 win is Wales biggest ever against the Scots.

Dominic Fifield's report for the Guardian, "Earnshaw Hammers Scots," played up a key difference between Wales and Scotland - speed. "Wales' recent success has been built upon pace, Earnshaw revelling in the absence of Craig Bellamy here, and it is speed which Berti Vogts's side lacks most." Fifield quotes Scotland manager Berti Vogts as saying, "They were three yards quicker than my boys, and I can't do anything about the pace." The South Wales Echo has a story on the quickness of Wales as well, "Speedy Welsh Stun Vogts."

In his report for the Times Online, "Little Earnshaw Cuts Scotland Down to Size With Hat-trick," Oliver Kay has it that "Earnshaw, who has scored 22 goals for Cardiff City this season, was acclaimed by Vogts and Mark Hughes, the Wales manager, as the difference between the teams, but he was by no means the only one." He adds that "Wales, who had not won in their previous seven matches, rediscovered the purpose and swagger that took them so agonisingly close to qualification for their first leading tournament since 1958, whereas Scotland gave ammunition to those who feel they have failed to progress in two years under Vogts." William Johnson has the match report for the Telegraph, "Earnshaw Spree Sinks Sorry Scotland."

Not only was Earnshaw sublime but City newcomer Paul Parry was rather special himself. As Mike Morris observes in his story, "Parry did everything asked of him tonight, he attacked when he had space to do so, he tackled when needed and he played the simple effective ball when the situation called for it. Considering it was only his 6th game above conference level it's an amazing night for Paul Parry." Not very long ago, Parry was playing for Conference side Hereford United. Now he plays for Wales. He didn't start, though. Simon Davies took a knock at the half-hour mark and had to come out of the game, giving Parry his chance. Mike Morris notes that "his first contribution was to play a delightful ball to Ryan Giggs who crossed for Earnie to get the final touch of his shoulder to see the ball into the corner of the net." That goal gave Wales a 2-0 lead. Terry Phillips has a story on Parry's impressive debut, "New Boy Has the Answers." BBC Sport has a Parry story as well, "Parry Caps Amazing Rise."

Phil Blanche has the story on the match for the Western Mail, "Rampant Robert Burns Scots." The Western Mail has another report as well, "Hat-trick Hero Earnie Fires Up Wales." Terry Phillips has a South Wales Echo story featuring Mark Hughes quotes, "Hughes: Wonderful Wales Can Be Proud ."


Are City Safe?


Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Stat-Mail's latest "Full Prediction Table" forecasts a 16th-place finish for Cardiff City. They see City winding up 12-14-20 for a mere 50 points, meaning that the Bluebirds will win but one of their last 15, drawing four and losing the rest. Whoa! A mere seven points from the last 15 games? Looks just a bit harsh, wouldn't you say? I suppose you could argue that so cataclysmic a collapse is possible. City do face clubs above them in the table in 10 of their last 15 and haven't beaten one of these clubs yet. Still, we all know that the Stat-Mail forecasting system is pure looney tunes. As Nigel Harris observed in a post to the mailing list today, "Stat-Mail prediction tables are as crude as they get. They calculate how many points a team has collected over its last 4 or 5 matches and roll it up for the rest of the season. If Bradford win their next 3 games, stat-mail will probably predict them for the play-offs!" That's about exactly right.

Let's pretend, though, that City do just as Stat-Mail "predicts" and do finish up with 50 points. Would that 1-4-11 finish send them crashing into Division Two? Let's take a statistical look at what it has taken to stay up in this division.

Clubs in this division have played a 46-game schedule for the last 15 years and during that time the lowest points total for a club escaping relegation has been 47. Back in 1998/99 Port Vale finished 21st with 47 and stayed up on goal difference alone. In 1988/89, the first year of the 46-game card, Hull City stayed up with 47 and beat out Shrewsbury Town, in 22nd place, by five points. I suppose you could argue that Hull could have stayed up with a mere 43 points but that wouldn't be saying much as that 43 would be quite the anomaly. There hasn't been another season in the last 15 where a club could have stayed up with less than 47. (Last year Stoke wound up with 50, four more than Sheffield Wednesday, but the Potters had to have 47 as the Owls had a much better goal-difference figure. Ditto Bradford City in 1996/97. The Bantams wound up with 48 that year, two better than Grimsby but had to have 47 as the Mariners had the better goal-difference mark.)

On the other hand, there have been a couple of seasons where it took more than 50 points to stay up. In 1995/96 Portsmouth needed 52 points to stay up on goal difference alone, and in 1993/94 West Bromwich stayed up thanks to goal difference with 51 points.

The highest total for a club escaping relegation in this division in the last 15 years? That'd be the 54 points Sunderland piled up in 1994/95. That figure's a bit misleading, though, as four clubs were relegated from Division One that year. So, the gang from Roker Park had to finish 20th to stay up.

The median figure in this division has to be right around 50. In five of the 15 years the lowest-placed club to stay up has finished with 49 points. Five other times the total's been 50 points. At the high end, there's been Sunderland's 54, Portsmouth's 52, and West Brom's 51. At the low end, the Port Vale and Hull City 47s, Bradford's 48, and four 49s.

The likelihood is, then, that even if Stat-Mail were to actually get something right for once and City were to finish with only 50 points they'd likely stay up - just.


Midtable With a Vengeance


Sunday, February 15, 2004

Despite yesterday's 2-1 loss at West Bromwich Albion, Cardiff City managed to hang on to 12th in Division One. They're still in the top half of the table, thanks to Crystal Palace's demolishing Stoke City 6-3. Had the Potters picked up at least a point at Palace they could have taken City's place in the top 12.

City's loss to the Baggies, combined with Stoke's remaining in the bottom half, sets up some striking stats. City have an 11-10-10 mark but check how it breaks down:

* Against the other 11 clubs in the top half of the table, City have no wins, five draws, and seven losses. That's a total of five points from 12 games.

* Against clubs in the bottom half of the table, City show 11 wins, five draws, and three defeats. That's a total of 38 points from 19 games.

* In home games against top-half opposition, City have four draws and two defeats. This suggests they might just manage to nick a point at home versus Sunderland this Saturday. In away matches against the top half, however, City have but a single point from six played, that 0-0 draw at Sunderland in October.

* At home against bottom-half clubs, City have six wins, a draw, and two defeats. Not bad at all. They're just about as good away from home against the bottom half too. Five wins, four draws, and only one loss, that 2-1 setback at Watford in late December.

Can there be a more resolutely midtable club than Cardiff City this year? Though the Bluebirds are still but five points from sixth place and a playoff berth, figures like these suggest there's almost no chance of postseason glory this year.

To be honest, I'm worried about City's managing to hold onto their tenuous hold on a top-half spot. Ten of City's last fifteen games are against clubs in the top half of the table! Scary.