Sunday, April 18, 2004

Is Robert Earnshaw about to leave Cardiff City? That's the talk these days and it doesn't take much at all to get the topic into the headlines. Consider yesterday's game. Andy Campbell comes on late, sets up one goal and scores another, and the next thing you know he's a possible 2004-05 replacement for Earnie up front. For a case in point, check this Mario Risoli story from today's Western Mail, "Campbell: I Can Replace Earnie." The first sentence reads, "Andy Campbell believes he could step into Robert Earnshaw's shoes if the Wales striker leaves Cardiff City this summer." Sells papers, I guess.

Not too surprisingly, then, the prospect of life without Earnie was all the talk on the messageboard at Cardiff City Online today. Here's a sampling of views, beginning with those of Scoular's Ghost:

All the signs are that the wee man is going. I for one will be very sorry but thankful for having been around to see the club's best (ever?) striker in his unstoppable prime.

The real debate for those of us left behind, however, is what will the £4 million (or whatever) be spent on? If we really are deep in financial doo-doo and Sam merely uses it to ease our credit rating at the bank then I fear Earnie's departure will just be the first of many and basement bargains are all we can expect in return.

The Other Bob Wilson had this to say:

If Earnie isn't willing to commit his long tern future to the club, then I reckon this summer is as good a time as any to sell him because we are not going to get as much money for him as his contract begins to run out. The figure of £4,000,000 has been mentioned and I feel this is a realistic figure for him in the current financial climate within the game.

The Lone Gunman offered this:

Could it not be possible that he has turned down the new contract because the offer was a relatively poor one (which would make sense given our financial position), and that he and his agent are simply holding out for a better offer from City?

Everybody seems to have taken the new contract refusal to be a clear sign that he wants to go (which, of course, is entirely possible). But nobody seems to have considered the other scenario.

In reply to the Gunman, the Other Bob Wilson came back with this:

That's a fair point Gunman. I would say that if money is tight, then it seems a bit pointless offering him a new deal when he has quite a bit left of his current contract. Then again, I suppose it could be that the club have offered Earnie this deal knowing he would turn it down thereby giving them the excuse to sell him? Blimey, i'm seeing conspiracy theories everywhere!

To which the Lone Gunman bounced back with this:

A conspiracy theory it may be, but the idea of the club forcing Earnie's hand by offering him a relatively poor financial package is certainly not a ludicrous one.

Another factor which you highlight is that Earnie has plenty of time left on his current contract. Perhaps neither Earnie (and his agent) nor the club feel it is essential to negotiate further at this stage.

Everybody seems to believe that this alleged contract refusal is irrefutable evidence that Earnie wants to leave. But perhaps he has not refused to sign a contract extension at all. Perhaps he has simply refused to sign this particular contract extension because the terms on offer weren't particularly good.

Meanwhile, TP Blue makes the case for Earnshaw's leaving in no uncertain terms:

The club are clearly already spinning to the media that they are willing to listen for the right money - Terry Phillips in particular is spinning club PR about how it is time for him to move on, and Andy Campbell being a straight replacement.

Mr Earnshaw has a million pound boot-deal waiting for him as soon as he signs for a Premiership club.

The player seems unwilling to sign a further extension to his contract - It's now or never if the club are to cash in on him. If we wait until next summer, and he is still refusing to sign an extension - we are looking at small cash at best. The club are not willing to do this.

Realistically, Earnie knows the club could be in this division for a long time yet, and he has to move on to keep progressing, and really challenge Craig Bellamy for his Welsh shirt. He can only do that by performing week in week out at the top level.

Sam has sounded out several prominent fans about the effect the sale of Earnie would have on the fans. Also, a number of people normally bang on the money have said that the deal has already been done.

Mr Earnshaw's general demeanor and body language suggests that he knows he won't be here next season. I'm not suggesting lack of effort, but he is certainly not busting a gut when he doesn't have the ball at the moment. Could well be a subconcious thing if he knows he is going to pastures new - the same as when I give my notice at work - I am suddenly de-mob happy.

I may be wrong, and the pertinent question may be who in their right mind would pay big money for a striker who has managed short of a handful of goals in the last couple of months. But for the reasons above, I am inclined to believe that the player won't be here next season.

I'll wrap this up with the Lone Gunman's reply to TP Blues:

An excellent post.

The biggest problem we will have if Earnshaw leaves is that many of our more casual supporters will lose faith with Sam Hammam, and if that happens he has nobody but himself to blame.

He has continually told the press that our 'star players' will not be sold unless it is to the likes of Man Utd, Arsenal or Liverpool. He has been 100% clear about that, and he has repeated his claims on numerous occasions.

Therefore, he is going to have a serious amount of egg on his face if Earnie is sold to Charlton or Fulham, whatever sort of business sense the move makes.

I'm scared to death, of course, that Earnie is going to leave, but reading these messageboard posts gives me this weird feeling that he just might stay. Crazy, I know, but that's what I get from these.

Subs Super as City Stop Burnley 2-0