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Wednesday, March 13, 2002 - 01:40 p.m. -
Text-based Pong!
Tuesday, March 12, 2002 - 01:36 p.m. -
This has been running around lately,
and I wanted to address it. The notion is that some people can intuitively predict future values of chaotic (nonrandom) series based on previous values - hence some people's success in the stock market, e.g. This might be true, but seems unlikely to me. Here's why:
Any data set is representative of an infinite number of different series. Of course, some sets are defined as parts of particular series - the numbers 32, 33, and 34, when defined as the last three values of my age in years on my birthday, yield 35 as the only possible immediately following value. But we can't simplify chaotic series this way - even if we could manage all the variables, we can't manage the precision.
What does this mean? If we don't know the rules, we can't predict the next value(s) of any given data set. I will grant that we can determine that some values are likelier than others by observing the range of possible values, etc. - I will never be 36.5 years old on my birthday, nor is it likely that I will be -23 or 1,000,000,000. Still, I believe this kind of intuition doesn't help anyone beat the market.
I remember an old story or puzzle or warning or somesuch about a game in which people predicted the results of 10 coin flips and the one in one thousand who guessed right (as expected by the student of probability) was hailed as the most psychic of the group. Of course, random isn't the same as chaotic, but it's a fun story.
Sunday, March 10, 2002 - 12:13 p.m. -
Throw your digital camera in the lake!
For Art!
Friday, March 8, 2002 - 01:08 p.m. -
I love that Seattle can go from winter wonderland to pleasant spring day in under twelve hours. I've said it before but it bears repeating: Snow is a recreational surface and has no place in today's City of Tomorrow.
Thursday, March 7, 2002 - 11:57 a.m. -
Death
to the ATCG hegemony!
Wednesday, March 6, 2002 - 12:52 a.m. -
"Psychotherapeutic screensaver and desktop enhancer""
called Drempels. Neat Windows doodad that turns the desktop into a swirl of weirdness. The recycle bin and all its iconic friends are little islands in a sea of madness. It doesn't seem to affect performance even on my not-very-graphics-intensive machine.
Tuesday, March 5, 2002 - 02:27 p.m. -
Does anyone else remember learning set theory in elementary school? In the early 70's in Unionville PA - not exactly a bastion of forward-thinking educators - I had to learn all those goofy upside-down-U symbols and whatnot. I've since forgotten them, but they still ring the chimes of familiarity when I see them. Now, set theory is fundamental to a deep understanding of math*, but only maybe 1 in 100 or 1,000 kids is going to need or want that. If anything, it confuses the hell out of kids who just want to know how to split up their Halloween candy evenly. Who thought it was a good idea? It isn't still happening, is it?
*This statement should in no way imply that Mr. Lightner possesses a "deep understanding of math." Ha! But he knows enough to know what should be known by those who want to know, or so he says.
Monday, March 4, 2002 - 12:11 p.m. -
So that's why
I sleep badly so often. Heh-heh: "micro-arousals."
Thursday, February 28, 2002 - 01:00 p.m. -
Shrimpmeat!
Though I loathe the substance, I doubleplusunloathe the site. BC's friend IR did it and it's neat. Submit your own band name ideas and maybe some losers will pick it! Ape or Astro-Ape!
Wednesday, February 27, 2002 - 11:06 a.m. -
Headline:
"Mormon leader 'ordered massacre of settlers'"
Tuesday, February 26, 2002 - 12:13 p.m. -
Two-headed moose fetus!
Two-headed moose fetus! Two-headed moose fetus! Also please note that its mother was "harvested."
Tuesday, February 26, 2002 - 11:59 a.m. -
Libertarians get it right.
In response to the recent ad campaign suggesting that drug users were funding terrorists, the LP just put out a counter-ad accusing the principals of the War on Drugs of creating the black market that really funds our new boogeymen. Right on.
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